Christmas retail 'Rush Curve' now faster than last year says Synovate Retail Performance
8 December 2006
UNITED KINGDOM — Well, the shoppers have kept the retailers waiting, but now at last the 'rush curve' is strengthening significantly faster than last year according to Synovate Retail Performance's Retail Traffic Index™ (RTI™). In the week commencing Sunday 26th November, store traffic was up 9.1% on the previous week (commencing 19th November), while last year, by comparison, in the week commencing Sunday 27th November 2005 shopper numbers only increased by 5.7% on the previous week.
Dr. Tim Denison, Director of Knowledge Management at Synovate Retail Performance and leading retail psychologist comments; "This latest week's data certainly vindicates our earlier statement that Christmas trading is beginning to take off. Until last week we hadn't seen the start of the rush in the shops, but in all truth we hadn't expected it. Every year people leave their in-store shopping later, having done their research online and waited until tempted by offers such as secret sales and short term extravaganzas.
"While it is still too early to call with any degree of certainty how Christmas trading will fare this year, this is an encouraging sign for retailers. Nevertheless they certainly will not be complacent. They know that their margins are under attack and that even with this welcome 'rush curve', the build-up has been slower than last year. For the entire week commencing Sunday 26th November, although store traffic across the UK was 9.1% higher than the previous week and grew faster than it had last year, it was still down 5.1% on the same week last year. This realised figure exactly matches our forecast for the week.
"As last week wore on, the differentials in shopper numbers between this year and last steadily reduced, such that by Saturday (2nd December) they were only down by 0.1% against the same Saturday last year. On the back of these latest figures we have no reason to adjust our forecast. We still expect shopper numbers to be slightly down in December by 2.4% on 2005 – far from the disaster that some commentators have been anticipating.
"Clearly every day and every week that goes by we will get a better understanding of how the festive season is shaping up. We expect to see numbers swell again this week (week commencing 3rd December) by 7% on last week, but remain about 5% down on last year.
"The signs are that retailers have successfully managed to tempt the shopper, so starting their annual pilgrimage to the shops. Consumers seem well aware of the special offers that are out there, but we would advise them to buy whilst they can, while the special deals are being offered and the stock is available. At the end of a challenging year, retailers are unlikely to have been overly bullish in their Christmas merchandise planning, so we may see stock of popular lines begin to run out very much earlier this year. Consumers should buy when they can, rather than waiting in the hope of even cheaper bargains."
All enquiries for follow up or interviews with Dr Tim Denison should be directed to Theo Chalmers at Verve PR on 01908 275271 (weekdays) or 07932 004632. N.B. Media Enquiries on Thursday 7th December only to 01908 682700.
Contact(s) for this press release
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Tim Denison
Synovate Retail Performance |
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34 Walker Avenue |
Tel. +44 (0) 1908 682 700 |
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Theo Chalmers
Managing Director, Verve Public Relations |
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Park House, 8 Grove Ash |
Tel. +44 1908 275 271 |
Synovate Retail Performance provides footfall monitoring solutions, shopper tracking systems and in-store behavioural research to retailers worldwide. Its core products - Shopper Count, Shopper Interact and Shopper Engage - scientifically measure all aspects of a shopper experience from store entry to exit. It supplies national and international retailers with essential business metrics to drive accountability and performance improvement.
Synovate Retail Performance is home to the Retail Traffic Index series, which for over 10 years has been the industry's leading tracker of national, regional and sector retail footfall trends. It is also co-founder of the KPMG / Synovate Retail Think Tank, offering thought leadership on the state of retail health and the future of retailing.
General information for Synovate Retail Performance, email info.rp@synovate.com
Synovate Retail Performance Limited is registered in England and Wales under number 3552625 with its registered address at Minerva House, 5 Montague Close, London, SE1 9AY, UK. Synovate Retail Performance is a wholly owned subsidiary of Synovate.
About The Retail Traffic Index (RTI)
The RTI from Synovate Retail Performance is regarded as the national benchmark of retail shopper traffic flow. It is constructed using a nationally representative sample of over 520 million visits to over 3,100 retail premises per annum across the UK, excluding the grocery, convenience and minor retail service sectors.
For further details and a full explanation see here.
About Synovate
Synovate generates insights to help clients drive competitive brand, product and customer experience strategies. Now part of Ipsos, with offices in over 80 countries, our approach combines best in class global research capabilities with personalised service, local knowledge and the flexibility to create teams and processes that meet clients' specific requirements. At Synovate, our clients sit at the top of our organisational chart, driving us to continually develop more innovative research solutions that predict actual business outcomes.
For more information on Synovate visit www.synovate.com.