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Christmas sales salvage December's retail footfall as retailers win brinkmanship battle

15 janvier 2009

UNITED KINGDOM — Final Retail Traffic Index (RTI) figures for December released by Synovate Retail Performance today reveal that the number of non-food shopping trips made in the month was down by just 1.3% on last year and up massively but not unexpectedly by 33.3% on November's footfall.

Synovate retail psychologist Dr Tim Denison said, "We all felt that last month was going to be different to recent past Christmases, but according to our latest data December 2008 was in fact extraordinary. In light of declining footfall levels in recent weeks and months, indicative of consumer wariness to go out spending, we had forecast that retail footfall would be 7.3% lower than December 2007. For the first three weeks of the five-week month our prediction was right on track. Numbers over that period were down dramatically, by almost 8.0%, on the same period in 2007."

"Shoppers, it seems, were certain that retailers would slash prices or begin full-blown Sales in the run-up to Christmas if they stayed away. In reality, many retailers held their nerve through this time, or held well-publicised sales which nevertheless only featured clearance stock and not 'must have' items. In fact, some of the latter even increased in price such was their desirability."

The heavy promotional activity by retailers meant that eventually it was shoppers who broke the stand-off and began their last minute surge on the Friday before Christmas, the 19th. After that the flood gates opened and the final few days before Christmas saw quite unbelievable crowds, given the economic conditions and state of consumer confidence. Monday the 22nd December proved to be the busiest shopping day of the pre-Christmas period, even busier (by 1.6%) than the 20th - the last Saturday before Christmas Day.

Denison continued, "From the 19th onwards, shoppers did not look back for the remainder of the month, spurred on by the subsequent and early launch of the winter Sales proper. With some retailers beginning their on-line Sales on Christmas Eve or Day, and more stores opening on Boxing Day than ever before, there was scarcely time to do the turkey justice before people were thronging the shops again, scouring for those heavily discounted bargains. Saturday the 27th broke many retailer records and transpired, as it did in 2007, to be the busiest shopping day of the year, 3.5% busier than the 22nd."

The final two weeks of the month therefore transformed footfall figures completely. That fortnight saw shopper numbers soar to levels 9.6% higher than the last two weeks of 2007, clawing back most of the deficit posted in the previous three weeks.

Denison explains, "Over the last decade we have witnessed Christmas shopping happening progressively later, but in truth people couldn't have left it much later than they did this time. The final full trading week before Christmas has established itself as the most critical week of the year since the start of the millennium, seeing footfall peak at levels 14% higher on average than any other week of the year. But 2008 was different. Retail footfall in the pre-Christmas week topped numbers over the second busiest week (Christmas week itself) by only 0.6%, a long way from 14%. Indeed, it was only 1.4% busier than the week after that, the final week of the year (week ending the 3rd of January).

"We might be seeing the nascence of a new December trend, in which trading peaks not in the run-up to Christmas at all, but in the Sales aftermath. Buying Christmas gifts for others may now have been usurped by tracking down bargains for ourselves, becoming the new December focus for consumers in our increasingly multi-cultural, different-faith society. Alternatively the pattern we saw last month could simply be symptomatic of the economic downturn facing consumers and their unwillingness to buy gifts at full price. Whichever the case, Christmas 2008 has been a remarkably different trading time when compared to previous years.

"Without doubt shoppers have been more discerning than in previous years. Whilst many tramped around the stores over the first fortnight of the Sales, not everyone made purchases, nor parted with as much of their hard-earned cash; this much is clear from trading statements released so far and the BRC/KPMG Retail Sales Monitor figures. As ever, though, despite the hard times we have seen significant year-on-year gains from some retailers, and who would have predicted that before Christmas?"

All enquiries for follow up or interviews with Dr Tim Denison should be directed to Theo Chalmers at Verve PR on 01908 275271 (weekdays) or 07932 004632.