Footfall figures 'sluggish', as shoppers gamble for late bargains, says Synovate
8 December 2009
UNITED KINGDOM — The first of the weekly 'countdown to Christmas' releases from Synovate Retail Performance shows that December has got off to a surprisingly sluggish start in the UK. The Retail Traffic Index (RTI) for Christmas Week One - w/c 29th November - recorded a decline of 4.1% against the same week of 2008 (w/c 30th November), but a rise of 7.5% on the previous week (w/c 22nd November 2009).
Synovate's Dr Tim Denison explains, "Despite strong promotional encouragement, shoppers have not yet taken to the streets in the numbers that we have seen in times past. The trend to progressively later gift-shopping in the run-up to Christmas is well documented now; except that last year the surge could not have been left any later, which suggests these latest figures are a reflection of genuinely subdued shopping build-up."
Shoppers have learnt over the last decade that leaving their buying until the last minute is generally rewarded with ever lower prices, except for certain must-have, short-supply gifts. This year though, the landscape is very different. Eager not to get stuck with excess produce, retailers have made sure stock piles are considerably lower than a year ago, which means that many more line items will inevitably sell out before Christmas. They had hoped that this message would see more shoppers on the high streets early this year, but our evidence from last week shows that shoppers have not changed their last-minute habits.
Denison continues, "In all honesty the slow start is much as we had expected; shoppers are obviously still sceptical about the retailers' message. They seem prepared, last week at least, to gamble the future availability of goods against expectations of price cuts to come. It is a high risk plan to play though, this year.
"Despite the slow start, our forecast of a 1.8% rise in footfall on last year for the month as a whole is still on track and a solid Christmas is still on the cards. We believe that it is a matter of delay tactics rather than an indicator of decline in demand per se. The first week has been a little slower than retailers would have liked, but the 7.5% rise on the previous week is not insignificant and shows that Christmas is on its way."
The impact of the continuing wet weather is likely to have persuaded more people to do their early shopping on-line. Those that did decide to brave it, will have been keen to make purchases, rather than simply do reconnaissance work, so we expect this to be reflected in retailers' so-called 'conversion rates'. It could also be that retailers' 'scarcity stories' will gain some important traction online, if not yet in the shops.
There are exceptions to the 'in-store' gloom however. In London's West End, where the streets were closed to traffic on Saturday and shoppers were treated to in-store entertainment, live music and giveaways, trading was reported as strong, although not at record levels, but shopper numbers were 7.4% down on the same event day last year, and not as reported elsewhere, up 33% on last year's event which in any event enjoyed better weather and the same street closures. The wet weather this year certainly took a toll and put a dampener on the spectacle for the curious.
Elsewhere around the country, it was Wales, the South West and Scotland that performed poorest of all. Shopper numbers for the week were down by 11% year-on-year in Scotland and by 6.2% in Wales and the South West.
Synovate will be issuing footfall updates regularly up to and shortly after Christmas and the New Year.
Enquiries for interviews with Dr. Tim Denison should be directed to Theo Chalmers at Verve PR on 01908 275271 (weekdays) or 07932 004632.
Contact(s) for this press release
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Chris Scoot
Synovate Retail Performance |
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34 Walker Avenue |
Telephone: +44 1908 682 700 |
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Theo Chalmers
Managing Director, Verve Public Relations |
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Park House, 8 Grove Ash |
Tel. +44 1908 275 271 |
Synovate Retail Performance provides footfall monitoring solutions, shopper tracking systems and in-store behavioural research to retailers worldwide. Its core products - Shopper Count, Shopper Interact and Shopper Engage - scientifically measure all aspects of a shopper experience from store entry to exit. It supplies national and international retailers with essential business metrics to drive accountability and performance improvement.
Synovate Retail Performance is home to the Retail Traffic Index series, which for over 10 years has been the industry's leading tracker of national, regional and sector retail footfall trends. It is also co-founder of the KPMG / Synovate Retail Think Tank, offering thought leadership on the state of retail health and the future of retailing.
General information for Synovate Retail Performance, email info.rp@synovate.com
Synovate Retail Performance Limited is registered in England and Wales under number 3552625 with its registered address at Minerva House, 5 Montague Close, London, SE1 9AY, UK. Synovate Retail Performance is a wholly owned subsidiary of Synovate.
About Synovate
Synovate generates insights to help clients drive competitive brand, product and customer experience strategies. Now part of Ipsos, with offices in over 80 countries, our approach combines best in class global research capabilities with personalised service, local knowledge and the flexibility to create teams and processes that meet clients' specific requirements. At Synovate, our clients sit at the top of our organisational chart, driving us to continually develop more innovative research solutions that predict actual business outcomes.
For more information on Synovate visit www.synovate.com.